Concanaco Servytur, Mexico's national confederation of chambers of commerce, services and tourism, forecasts that Buen Fin 2026, running November 13–17, will generate about 235 billion pesos in spending, 7.3% more than in 2025; around 49 billion pesos, or 21%, would be sold online. Octavio de la Torre, the chamber's president, announced the forecast on October 28, 2026, as reported by Uno TV and La Crónica de Hoy.
Keep in mind this is a forecast from a business chamber, not a result; actual sales will only be known after November 17. The short version: Buen Fin, Mexico's nationwide sales event, is still growing, but much more slowly than last year, and roughly 1 of every 5 pesos would be spent online. As of November 2 there are 11 days to go. At this point the forecast is less useful for deciding how much to buy and more useful for deciding how to run those five days and the week after.
The forecast in numbers
| Edition | Sales (pesos) | Year-over-year growth | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 173.8 billion | — | Uno TV |
| 2025 | 219.2 billion | 26.1% | Uno TV |
| 2026 (forecast) | ~235 billion | 7.3% | Concanaco, via Uno TV |
In pesos: from 2024 to 2025 the event grew by 45.4 billion (219.2 − 173.8). The 2026 forecast adds about 15.8 billion (235 − 219.2), roughly a third of last year's increase. If your inventory plan assumed another jump like 2025's, check it against your own October sales. For the local view, see our Buen Fin 2026 forecast for Guadalajara.
The rest of the forecast (Uno TV, La Crónica de Hoy):
- Online: about 49 billion pesos, roughly 21% of the total, according to De la Torre.
- Physical stores: about 186 billion pesos, or 79%.
- Participants: more than 200,000 businesses, in the program's 16th edition.
What shoppers plan to buy
The same forecast includes the share of consumers who plan to buy in each category (Uno TV, La Crónica de Hoy):
| Category | Consumers planning to buy |
|---|---|
| Fashion | 38% |
| Electronics | 30% |
| Personal care | 27% |
| Home appliances | 24% |
| Mobile phones | 21% |
La Crónica de Hoy notes that electronics is slightly lower because of earlier screen purchases ahead of the World Cup. Intent isn't purchase, but the ranking is useful: fashion and electronics lead the list, and each asks something different of your warehouse.
What it means for your operation, 11 days out
1. Inventory gets received and counted before the 13th, not during the event. Goods that reach the warehouse on Friday the 13th aren't for sale on Friday the 13th. Someone has to unload them, count them against the invoice, put them away and load them into the system first. We walk through the process in inbound receiving at a 3PL.
2. If you work with a 3PL, book your receiving appointment now. A 3PL (a third-party logistics provider that stores your stock and ships your orders) schedules inbound deliveries by appointment. Right now many brands want to unload the same week; booking today keeps you out of the line. The week-by-week dates are in our Buen Fin 2026 logistics calendar.
3. Carrier capacity gets tight. During the event, pickups and delivery routes fill up. Confirm pickup times with your parcel carrier for each of the five days and publish your order cutoff (the latest time an order can come in and still ship the same day).
4. Buen Fin ends on the 17th; the operation doesn't. Orders from the five days keep reaching the warehouse after Tuesday the 17th. Plan staff, packing materials and pickups for the week of November 18 as if it were part of the event.
5. Returns come afterward. With fashion at the top of the list, size exchanges are part of the business, not a failure. Decide now who receives what comes back, who inspects it and when it goes back on sale; we cover this in what to do with e-commerce returns.
6. Packaging depends on the category. Electronics and phones are higher-value orders: protect them with a right-sized box, void fill and tape that shows whether the package was opened. A shirt can ship in a poly mailer; a phone can't.
What the forecast doesn't say
- It doesn't say how fast online is growing. The reports give its estimated size for 2026, not its change versus 2025.
- It doesn't split marketplaces from brand-owned stores within the 49 billion.
- Intent isn't purchase. The category shares are what consumers say they plan to buy.
FAQ
How much is Buen Fin 2026 expected to sell? Concanaco Servytur forecasts about 235 billion pesos, 7.3% more than the 219.2 billion of 2025. It's the chamber's estimate, not a result.
How much of Buen Fin 2026 will be sold online? About 49 billion pesos, roughly 21% of the total, according to Concanaco's forecast.
Where can shoppers check Buen Fin prices? Profeco, Mexico's consumer protection agency, offers a price-check tool at elbuenfin.profeco.gob.mx, according to Uno TV.
If your Buen Fin inventory isn't in a warehouse yet, this is how we handle e-commerce fulfillment in Mexico from our distribution center in Zapopan, Guadalajara: we receive your goods and count them against the invoice, store them, pick and pack each order and ship it with parcel carriers. Orders placed before 12:00 p.m. ship the same day.