Class A industrial vacancy in the Guadalajara metro area fell from 6.0% to 4.8% at the end of the third quarter of 2026, leaving 291,900 m² available, according to CBRE's MarketView report. It was covered by Cluster Industrial on October 27, 2026 and Líder Empresarial on October 29, 2026.
Vacancy is the share of existing space that is empty and available to lease. Class A means modern, top-specification industrial buildings, the only ones this report covers. Guadalajara is in the state of Jalisco; Zapopan and El Salto are municipalities within its metro area.
In short: more space was taken than was built. For a brand that sells online, that means fewer options; the price isn't in the report.
The news, in numbers
Gross absorption is the space leased or occupied during the period; net absorption subtracts the space that was vacated.
| Class A industrial market, Guadalajara metro area | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|
| Vacancy rate | 4.8% (down from 6.0%) |
| Available space | 291,900 m² (about 3.1 million sq ft) |
| Gross absorption, quarter | 267,100 m² |
| Net absorption, quarter | 241,200 m² |
| Gross absorption, January–September | over 523,000 m² |
| Net absorption, January–September | 377,700 m² |
| Class A inventory | 6.04 million m² (about 65 million sq ft) |
| New supply delivered | 180,600 m², all in El Salto |
| Under construction | 364,300 m² |
| Planned projects | about 2.0 million m² |
Square-foot figures are our conversion (1 m² = 10.76 sq ft). Two calculations from those figures:
- More space was taken than was delivered. 241,200 m² of net absorption against 180,600 m² of new supply: 60,600 m² more demand than new space. That's why vacancy dropped 1.2 percentage points in one quarter.
- The third quarter outweighed the whole first half. If January–September net absorption was 377,700 m² and July–September was 241,200 m², the first half contributed 136,500 m²: 64% of the year's net absorption came in Q3. Cluster Industrial describes it as an acceleration.
But Sergio Navarro, CBRE's vice president for Guadalajara, said occupancy activity held at levels similar to the past four years, in our translation of his remarks to Líder Empresarial. This isn't a sudden surge; it's steady demand that took more space than was built. At the end of the first half, vacancy stood at 6.0%; we covered that cut in Guadalajara's industrial market in H1 2026.
Where the market is growing
- El Salto holds 48% of Class A inventory, roughly 2.9 million m² (48% of 6.04 million), and received all of the quarter's new supply. It's the main growth hub.
- Zapopan Norte has 1.34 million m², tied to electronics and technology manufacturing.
- Periférico Sur has 0.76 million m².
Who is taking the space: electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive and agribusiness, plus advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence and data centers. Absorption came from expansions, renewals, pre-leasing (signing before the building is finished) and build-to-suit projects (built for a specific tenant).
Jalisco received US$1,406.5 million in foreign direct investment in the first half of 2026, more than in all of 2025, according to the Secretaría de Economía (Ministry of Economy) as cited by Líder Empresarial. The state's industrial parks association expects more than US$625 million in new parks and buildings in 2026, versus more than US$600 million in 2025.
What it means for a brand that sells online
- This market is built for large users. A report measured in hundreds of thousands of square meters, driven by manufacturing and build-to-suit deals, describes a different kind of tenant. It's a read on the region, not a list of options for your inventory.
- Low vacancy: less choice and less room to negotiate. At 4.8% there are fewer options on location, size and move-in date, and all of the new supply landed in a single submarket.
- The real decision is fixed space versus variable space. A lease is a fixed cost: you pay for it full or half empty. With a 3PL, space goes up and down with your inventory. We compare both in in-house warehouse vs. 3PL; to set it against a lease, see how much e-commerce storage costs in Mexico.
- A tight market isn't a reason to split your inventory. Before opening a second site, check whether you're better off with one hub or several warehouses.
What this report doesn't tell you
- It doesn't publish rents. Neither article reports lease rates for the quarter, and we won't estimate them.
- It doesn't mention e-commerce. The demand it names is industrial and digital; falling vacancy proves nothing about e-commerce, either way.
- It doesn't measure small warehouses. It only covers Class A. Small warehouses inside the city are a different market: we covered it in the fight for urban warehouse space.
- It isn't a forecast. According to the report itself, the 2.0 million m² of planned projects depend on demand, infrastructure and execution.
FAQ
What's the difference between gross and net absorption? Net subtracts what was vacated from gross, so it's the one that tells you whether the market grew. In Q3 2026, net absorption (241,200 m²) was 90% of gross (267,100 m²): most of the activity was additional space being occupied.
With vacancy at 4.8%, is it better to lease a building or hire a 3PL? It depends on how stable your inventory is, not on vacancy. If you fill the same space all year, a lease can work out better; if your inventory rises in peak season and then falls, fixed space charges you for empty square meters. Vacancy only changes how many options you have if you lease.
CBRE's report describes the market for companies that lease buildings. If what you need is inventory that's stored, counted and shipping on time, this is how we handle warehousing in Guadalajara: from our distribution center in Zapopan we receive your goods and count them against your invoice, store them, pick and pack every order and hand it to the parcel carrier. Orders that come in before 12:00 p.m. ship the same day.