The Guadalajara Chamber of Commerce expects Buen Fin 2026 sales to grow about 4%, compared with 16% growth in 2025. Nora Ampudia Márquez, vice president of the chamber's economic advisory council, presented the forecast on October 8, 2026, as reported by La Crónica de Hoy. Buen Fin, Mexico's biggest annual sales event, runs November 13–17.
The same forecast includes a figure that points the other way: the chamber estimates that about 35% of purchases will be made online, up from 32% in 2025. Less total growth, but a bigger online share. For a brand that sells online, that combination changes the inventory plan.
What the forecast says
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sales growth | 16% | ~4% |
| Online purchases | 32% | ~35% |
| In-store purchases | 68% | ~65% |
| Campaign length | 5 days (extended by one) | 5 days (November 13–17) |
Other 2025 figures the chamber shared that are useful for planning:
- 48% of shoppers bought Christmas gifts early during Buen Fin.
- 66% of purchases were apparel, footwear and textiles; 10% were electronics.
- Average spend per shopper was 8,887 pesos.
- 36% of participating businesses hired staff, and 87% of those hires were temporary.
The chamber's reasons for expecting less: consumer confidence has been falling, and private consumption, which INEGI puts at 71% of GDP, has slowed. This year's campaign also won't get the extra day it had in 2025.
What it means for your operation
1. Don't buy inventory based on last year's growth. The most expensive mistake this season would be projecting another 16% and filling the warehouse for a peak that organized retail itself doesn't expect. Inventory that doesn't sell in November doesn't disappear: it keeps paying storage until January. Your starting point is your own Buen Fin 2025 history, adjusted for how your September and October sales are trending, not the headline.
2. The online share is what's growing. If total sales grow a little and online gains three points of share, online orders grow faster than the total. For your operation, that means more individual parcels, which are the ones that need order-by-order preparation. A modest increase in sales can be a sharp increase in orders to pack.
3. A weak Buen Fin isn't a weak season. Almost half of shoppers bought Christmas gifts early in 2025. That makes Buen Fin the first week of a season that runs through December, not an isolated peak. The inventory you prepare has to last six weeks, not five days, and it's better to replenish in stages than to bring everything in at once. We cover this in a simple safety stock formula.
4. If you sell apparel, the risk is in variants. Two out of three purchases in 2025 were apparel, footwear or textiles. In those categories the costly mistake isn't running out of stock overall, it's shipping the wrong size or color on the most important order of the year. Check that your variants are correctly identified in your store and in your warehouse before November 13.
5. Temporary hiring is expensive and slow. 87% of the jobs Buen Fin 2025 created were temporary. Training someone to pack orders without errors in two weeks is hard, and a new hire's mistakes show up right in the highest-volume week. If your peak plan depends on hiring, start now or consider an operator that already has the capacity.
What this forecast doesn't say
It's an estimate from a Guadalajara business chamber, not from the national Concanaco, and the article doesn't detail its methodology. It also doesn't say how much each category will grow or separate marketplace sales from brand-owned stores. Use it as a signal of direction (a more modest Buen Fin, with more weight online), not as the exact number for your plan.
The week-by-week calendar for arriving with inventory is in our Buen Fin 2026 logistics calendar.
Selling online and want to run peak season out of Guadalajara without temporary hiring? See our 3PL in Guadalajara.
Frequently asked questions
When is Buen Fin 2026?
Friday, November 13 through Tuesday, November 17, 2026: five consecutive days.
How much are Buen Fin 2026 sales expected to grow in Guadalajara?
The Guadalajara Chamber of Commerce estimates growth of about 4%, versus 16% in 2025, citing lower consumer confidence and slower private consumption.
What share of Buen Fin purchases are made online?
In 2025, 32% of purchases were made online and 68% in physical stores. For 2026, the Guadalajara Chamber of Commerce estimates about 35% online.