The news
On August 23, 2026, El Financiero reported that cargo theft in Mexico fell 52% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to the federal government. The same article carries a second figure: National Guard data shows a 19.41% reduction over that same period.
Both are official. Both cover the first half of 2026. And they are 32 percentage points apart.
You don't need to decide which one is lying to get something useful out of this. What matters is why both can be true at once, and what it means for anyone moving product every day.
Why two official numbers can disagree
A cargo theft can be counted in several places: the state criminal file, the federal report, the carrier's complaint, the insurer's record, the tracking company's monitoring log. Each source sees a different slice of the same problem.
On top of that, not every event gets reported — especially lower-value ones — and the same incident can be classified as vehicle theft, violent robbery, or theft from a carrier depending on who records it.
The practical takeaway: a national cargo theft statistic is a thermometer for the country, not a diagnosis of your operation.
The data that does change decisions: where, and how violent
Underneath the headline there are more actionable numbers, from the supply chain security firm Overhaul cited in the same article:
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Thefts concentrated in 10 states | 86.3% |
| State of Mexico, Puebla and Guanajuato alone | 46.7% |
| Events involving some form of violence | 76% |
| Food and beverage (most-stolen category) | 31% |
| Construction and industrial | 8% |
| Automotive and parts | 8% |
| Fuels | 7% |
And in the longer National Guard series cited by El Financiero: from 13,068 cases in 2018 to 6,263 in 2025. The multi-year trend is genuinely down; the argument is about how far.
The 2026 increases by category are specific too: auto parts +3%, fuels +3%, electronics +2%.
What this means for your operation
1. Your risk isn't the national average — it's your corridor. If your product moves between the State of Mexico, Puebla and Guanajuato, you're inside the 46.7%. If it moves within western Mexico, your profile is different. "How much did theft drop in Mexico?" is the wrong question. "Where does my freight actually travel, and what happens on those stretches?" is the right one.
2. Violence rose even as events fell. With 76% of events involving some form of violence, the calculation changes: this is no longer only an inventory loss, it's a safety issue for the driver. That weighs on decisions like travel hours and stops.
3. Your category matters. Food and beverage accounts for 31% of thefts. If you sell supplements, food or drinks, your freight is more attractive than average and should be treated that way.
4. Less noise doesn't mean less need for traceability. A better trend doesn't change what has to be ready when something happens: knowing what was on the shipment, under what document, in whose name, and with what coverage.
What a 3PL can and cannot do here
Worth saying plainly, the same way we said it during the highway blockades: no logistics operator makes a highway safe. Anyone promising that is selling something that doesn't exist.
What a good operator does change is reaction time: the shipment documented before it leaves, knowing within hours — not days — exactly what it contained, replacing the end customer's order without hunting for the right paperwork, and freight moving with a valid carta porte, which is also what backs any later claim.
The other half happens before the highway: inventory counted, lots identified, and shipments built so a loss is limited to what was on that unit instead of "we're not sure what went out."
Frequently asked questions
Is cargo theft in Mexico actually falling? The multi-year trend is down according to the National Guard (13,068 cases in 2018 versus 6,263 in 2025). For the first half of 2026 there are two competing official figures — 52% and 19.41% reduction — so the exact size of the latest drop is disputed.
Which goods are stolen most? Food and beverage, at 31% of events according to Overhaul, followed by construction and industrial goods and automotive parts at 8% each.
Where does most of it happen? 86.3% is concentrated in ten states, and nearly half (46.7%) in the State of Mexico, Puebla and Guanajuato alone.
Does my cargo insurance cover theft in transit? It depends on the policy and on who bears responsibility for that leg. It's a different question from warehouse goods insurance, and both are worth settling before you need them.
If you're evaluating how to move product across Mexico with documentation and traceability in order, here's how we work as a 3PL in Mexico.