Nearshoring is relocating factories, suppliers or distribution centers to a country close to the market they serve; for Mexico, it means producing or sourcing here to sell into the United States, with short transit times and under USMCA rules.
It is, above all, a manufacturing and industrial-investment story. It is not the same as e-commerce fulfillment — but the two compete for the same square meters and the same workers. If you are a foreign brand weighing Mexico, that overlap is what matters. Below are the 2026 figures, each with its source and period.
Nearshoring vs. offshoring vs. reshoring
- Offshoring: moving production to a distant, low-cost country (the Asia manufacturing model of recent decades).
- Reshoring: bringing it back to the home country.
- Nearshoring: moving it next door to the end customer. For the U.S. market, that usually means Mexico.
Mexico's pull comes from a land border, supplier networks already in place and USMCA (the U.S.–Mexico–Canada trade agreement, known in Mexico as T-MEC).
Mexico nearshoring figures (2026)
Two terms first. FDI (foreign direct investment — IED in Mexican statistics) is capital foreign companies put into operations in Mexico. The vacancy rate is the share of the stock of industrial buildings (naves industriales: large-format warehouses in industrial parks) that sits empty and for lease.
| Indicator | Figure | Source | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total FDI | USD 34.97 billion, a record for a first half (+2.1% vs. H1 2025) | Mexico's Ministry of Economy | Jan–Jun 2026 |
| FDI by type | 88.5% reinvested earnings; only 7.8% (USD 2.73 billion) new investment | Ministry of Economy | Jan–Jun 2026 |
| FDI in manufacturing | USD 13.48 billion (38.6% of total, +9.3% YoY) | Ministry of Economy | Jan–Jun 2026 |
| FDI in transportation, mail and warehousing | USD 2.65 billion, almost 4× a year earlier (+287%) | Ministry of Economy | Jan–Jun 2026 |
| U.S.–Mexico goods trade | USD 682.8 billion; Mexico is the #1 U.S. trading partner (16.8% of the total) | U.S. Census Bureau | Jan–Aug 2026 |
| Growth of that trade | +17.6% vs. Jan–Aug 2025 (our calculation from the monthly series) | U.S. Census Bureau | Jan–Aug 2026 |
| National industrial vacancy | 5.5%, up from a low of 1.8% in mid-2023 | Solili, Q3 2026 report | Sep 2026 |
| Average industrial asking rent | USD 7.67 per m² per month, +5% YoY | Solili, monthly report | Sep 2026 |
| Gross / net absorption | 4.0 million m² (+8%) / 2.9 million m² (−15%) | Solili, Q3 2026 report | Jan–Sep 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | 3.0% of the economically active population | INEGI, ENOE survey | Aug 2026 |
Gross absorption is space leased; net absorption subtracts space vacated, so it shows how much occupancy actually grew.
USMCA status (October 2026): the agreement remains in force, but it was not extended for 16 years as Mexico and Canada wanted; it now goes through recurring reviews, which we covered in USMCA is now reviewed every year. On October 16, 2026, Mexico's Economy Secretary told lawmakers that about 80% of trade with the U.S. remains tariff-free and that a fourth bilateral round will take place before year-end, still without a deal on U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, per La Crónica.
What the numbers say
1. Investment is staying, but little new money is arriving. The FDI record is real, yet nearly nine of every ten dollars are profits that companies already in Mexico reinvest. New capital fell roughly 13% from H1 2025, according to analysis published by El Financiero.
2. Trade keeps growing. Mexico is the top U.S. trading partner in 2026, and goods trade is growing at double digits.
3. The industrial market moved from boom to adjustment. Vacancy has tripled since 2023. Solili attributes the slowdown to manufacturers adjusting or postponing projects amid the USMCA renegotiation and global uncertainty, while logistics — driven by e-commerce and retail in major cities — carries more weight in demand.
What it means for a foreign brand looking at Mexico
There are two different Mexico plays, and nearshoring headlines blur them. Manufacturing here to export to the U.S. is nearshoring. Selling to Mexican consumers is market entry — and it runs into nearshoring as a cost.
Space is still expensive and priced in dollars. Even with more empty buildings, asking rents did not drop: they rose 5% in a year. Mexico City is the priciest market (USD 10.38/m²/month) and the Bajío region the most competitive, per the same Solili report. For Guadalajara, we broke down CBRE's first-half numbers in Guadalajara's industrial market, H1 2026.
Your warehouse competes with factories for workers. With national unemployment at 3.0%, the labor market is tight, and a warehouse of your own competes for operations staff with the manufacturers nearshoring brought in.
Flexibility is worth more than ever. An industrial lease is typically multi-year, in dollars, with annual increases. With trade rules under recurring review, locking in that fixed cost before you know your Mexican volume is a heavy bet. Your three real options are compared in warehousing in Mexico for foreign brands.
Frequently asked questions
What is nearshoring in simple terms? Producing or sourcing close to the end customer instead of across the world. For the United States, that usually means Mexico.
Is nearshoring over in 2026? No, but it has changed phase. FDI hit a first-half record and U.S.–Mexico trade grew 17.6% in January–August; meanwhile, manufacturing demand for industrial space cooled and national vacancy rose to 5.5%.
Which Mexican cities lead industrial demand? In Q3 2026, Monterrey took 28% of national net absorption, with Mexico City and Guadalajara at 21% each (Solili). The Bajío has the lowest rents.
Is nearshoring the same as e-commerce fulfillment? No. Nearshoring is about where goods are made; fulfillment is about how each order is stored, packed and shipped to the consumer. What they share is the need for industrial space and people.
Nearshoring describes factories. If what you need is to sell in Mexico without signing years of dollar-denominated rent, with our 3PL in Mexico, run from Guadalajara, you pay per occupied position each month, with no lock-in contracts, and customs clearance and Importer of Record in the same operation if your product comes from abroad.