Eighty-two percent of cargo thefts recorded in Mexico during the first quarter of 2026 were concentrated in ten states, and 79% of those thefts involved some form of violence. The data comes from the Q1-2026 report by supply chain security firm Overhaul, published by T21 in July 2026.
It is not a pleasant topic, which is why it rarely shows up in a logistics quote. But it explains part of what it costs to move goods in Mexico, and there are concrete decisions you make with this map in hand.
The quarter's map
| State | % of national thefts |
|---|---|
| State of Mexico | 19% |
| Puebla | 13% |
| Guanajuato | 8% |
| Michoacán | 8% |
| Jalisco | 7% |
| Veracruz | 7% |
| San Luis Potosí | 6% |
| Hidalgo | 5% |
| Querétaro | 5% |
| Tlaxcala | 4% |
By region, central Mexico accounted for 45% of thefts and the Bajío for 30% — together, three quarters of the total. The interesting movement is in the trend: the center dropped six percentage points versus Q1 2025, while the Bajío rose four.
Jalisco ranks fifth at 7%, two percentage points higher than a year earlier.
One clarification about the national total: different outlets reported the quarter with contradictory readings on whether cargo theft rose or fell overall. What is consistent in the Overhaul report is the geographic distribution and the share of violent incidents, and that is what we cite here.
What changed in the method
The report describes a shift away from traditional highway holdups toward tactics that depend less on force on the road:
- Theft of entire units at overnight rest areas, where the driver stops.
- Cargo diversion at transfer points, exploiting changes of custody.
- Driver infiltration — that is, information from the inside.
All three share something: the risk is not only in the highway kilometer, it is in the moments when goods change hands or sit still. That moves the conversation from "how safe is the route?" to "how many times does my product stop and transfer?".
The hardest-hit categories
The highest-incidence segments were consumer packaged goods, electronics, and food. In other words: fast-moving merchandise, easy to resell and hard to trace once it is out of the box.
If your brand sells in one of those three categories, it is not that you are destined to be robbed — it is that your product is on the short list of what gets targeted.
What to do with this information
None of these measures eliminates the risk. All of them reduce it or cap the loss.
Reduce the number of transfers. Every change of custody is an opportunity. Consolidating shipments and cutting stops does more for your risk profile than any contract clause.
Ask about transit coverage, not just warehouse coverage. They are two separate policies, and transit coverage almost always carries low per-event limits. We break it down in warehouse goods insurance.
Require unit-level traceability. When every box carries an identifier scanned at each step, a missing item stops being a mystery and becomes an event with a timestamp and an owner.
Review your route's risk profile, not just its cost. The cheapest route crossing two of the states in that table may not be the cheapest by year's end.
Consider where your inventory originates. Shipping from a point close to your main market cuts kilometers and transfers. It is one reason the location of your distribution center matters as much as its price — a topic we cover in one hub vs. multiple warehouses.
Frequently asked questions
Does this mean moving goods through the Bajío is a bad idea? No. It means the corridor's risk profile changed and that measures which worked two years ago may be out of date. The Bajío remains the country's most active industrial corridor.
Does a 3PL absorb the loss if my goods are stolen in transit? It depends on the contract and on who contracted the transport. That question gets answered in writing before signing, not after the incident.
How often should I review my coverage? At minimum before each peak season, when the value of your inventory in motion multiplies and per-event limits fall short.
Transit risk is not eliminated with a clause: it is reduced with fewer transfers, better traceability, and a network designed from the right origin. If you want to review how your goods are routed today, let's talk about your 3PL operation in Mexico and we will look at it with your numbers.